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Year : 2017  |  Volume : 25  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 26-32

A simple mortality prognostic scoring system for burns

Plastic Surgery Unit, Department of Surgery, N.S.C.B. Government Medical College, Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh, India

Correspondence Address:
Dr Pawan Agarwal
292/293 Napier Town, Jabalpur 482001, Madhya Pradesh
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None

DOI: 10.4103/ijb.ijb_26_17

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Background: Several complex prognostic scoring systems are available for burn patients incorporating sophisticated investigations and use of global scales involved in the management of patients in intensive care unit. We constructed and validated a simplified scoring system for burn patients, which can be easily used in developing countries. Materials and Methods: One hundred and eighty-two consecutive patients with burns undergoing treatment at a teaching hospital in Central India were studied prospectively. Multiple logistic regressions were used to assess the predictive power of each prognostic variable. A simple scoring system was constructed using the four most powerful, but easy to calculate, prognostic factors. This system was then prospectively validated in the next 122 consecutive patients. Results: On multivariate analysis, total body surface area, percentage full thickness burn area, presence of inhalation burn, and serum creatinine were found significant predictors of mortality. Score was constructed using logit model using these four factors, which ranged from 4 to 20. Score correlated well with mortality; which increased with rising score. The mean score in survivors was significantly less than that in non-survivors (9.44 vs. 15.75; P < 0.0001). Cut off value of score ≥12 was associated with significantly higher mortality. The predicted and observed outcomes matched well. Conclusion: The Jabalpur prognostic scoring system for burns is effective for prognostication in selected group of patients with burn injuries. It is simple and user-friendly because it uses only four routinely documented clinical risk factors.

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